By Joe Hanlon*
analysis
Mozambique seems likely to remain a predominant party state for the foreseeable future. The ruling party Frelimo is still relatively popular and inclusive, while the opposition remains marginal.
Frelimo's power comes from its:
•ability to stay united and co-opt potential opposition figures,
•creation of a party structure that is recognisable to European political parties, with party militants at the base getting out the vote and calling attention to local issues, and
•maintenance of internal party democracy which ensures that the President and other leaders are not all-powerful.
Nevertheless, Frelimo faces a set of real challenges:
•Poverty is not being reduced and the neo-liberal model pushed by the international financial institutions and embraced by the elite is not promoting development.
•An older generation - liberation war veterans and those who filled middle level positions shortly after independence - are reluctant to cede power to a younger generation, which is turning its back on politics.
•Inclusiveness means that venal and corrupt members of the elite are kept inside the party and have relative impunity. Rapidly growing mineral revenues could be divisive.
And it is really the lack of an opposition that protects Frelimo. It remains the only show in town. Therefore people who are ambitious - politically, economically or socially - align with "the Party".