Ending the Cabo Delgado war requires elite pacts between the oligarchs and big beasts in Cabo Delgado and a similar pact in the military. This implicitly recognises that that big men in Cabo Delgado must be allowed to profit from resources and big men in the military must continue to profit from commissions and contracts, but that enough money must be released to solve local grievances about jobs and to allow enough for soldiers to be fed and adequately equipped.
This is the effect of recommendations of OMR (Observatorio do Meio Rural, Rural
Obsservatory) in the summary of their 1 June webinar Military
insecurity and the future of gas (Portuguese and English). It is very brave putting into a
publication what many people recognise - that in Mozambique today it should be
accepted that the big beasts and lower level cabritos (goats) must eat, but
internal agreements need to be negotiated so that profits are shared in a way
that not everything is eaten.
The two final seminar recommendations are: "Realization of a regime pact that
goes beyond the government and Frelimo, considering the issue of Cabo Delgado
as a national imperative. Realization of a pact between
military forces, listening to the different military
sensitivities on issues that go beyond its sphere, openly discussing issues of
income, benefits and war deals, aspects that have constituted a clear obstacle
on the military front." The first is a call fro two internal negotiations,
between the oligarchs and big beasts of Cabo Delgado to agree a sharing system,
while also leaving something for local people and job creation. The second puts
on the table "openly discussing issues of income, benefits and war
deals" and thus demands an agreement between the big men in military and
security of how to share commissions, while leaving enough to buy food and
equipment for soldiers, and end the bigger fight between army and police. It is
perhaps the first time a serious report has put on the table elite deals to
regulate greed.
The seminar report also has a good short summary of global gas producers and
market, Mozambique gas including Temane (Inhambane), income, and the security
crisis.
Comment: a possible model The United States has a long history of managing what some
call corruption. A relevant model was Seattle on the US west coast. The city
wanted an image of high morality but many of its citizens wanted entertainment,
so it developed its "tolerance policy." For 50 years (1920s through
1960s) the Seattle Police Department vice squad and patrol
officers collected bribes to allow activities considered
"vices" to continue. Officers openly collected payments of cash from
prostitues, gambling operators, bar operators who served after hours or who
catered to gay and lesbian customers, etc. Money was passed up the chain of
command. From the local police officer on up, each person gave half of the
money they received to their superior, up to the highest level. Most important,
there was an established tariff for each activity and a detailed accounting
system so that no one was cheated. The bribes set were low enough to ensure
that the illegal businesses remained profitable. And as it was organised by the
police, it kept out mafia and other criminal protection rackets.
Because New Orleans police were low paid, they had an organised system of
hiring out off-duty police for extra patrolling or as guards. In Boston
planning applications had to be approved by the fire department and they were
careful not to allow anything dangerous, but they would only read the
application if there was a $5 note after each page.
Nor is it just the US. The UK has its "cronies list" - a list of
friends of the Conservative party who have priority in winning government
contracts. Many places - and aid agencies - have informal rules that 10% or 15%
kickbacks on contracts are allowed.
The crisis in Cabo Delgado is caused by the free market. The big beasts and
cabritos can charge anything they like and impose onerous conditions. Police
and soldiers can demand money, mobile phones and sexual favours because there
is no agreed tariff. And there are paralysing fights, notably between police
and army, instead of cooperation.
Ending the war in Cabo Delgado means recognising and, by agreement, regulating
the illegal free market. Some form of the Seattle model could be agreed. Jh
Source: Mozambique, News Reports & Clippings – 10 june 2021
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