By Joseph Hanlon
The announcement suggests
significant progress on three sets of parallel negotiations - within Frelimo
and within Renamo, and between Nyusi and Dhlakama. International mediators had
been a Renamo demand, so dispensing with meditators and moving to two very
small technical working groups suggests an agreement in principle has been
reached. This must mean agreement on three points.
+ First would be acceptance of
some Renamo governors and a commitment to reduce the role of the Frelimo party
in the state apparatus. Key people in Frelimo have already accepted this but it
requires defining the roles of the governors and provincial assemblies, perhaps
to be similar to mayors and municipal assemblies.
+ Second is some role for
Renamo in the army, with Renamo people in senior positions. This could be
acceptable to Frelimo because it has always kept the army weak; the war with
Renamo is being largely fought by the special riot police unit.
+ Third is money, which has
never been mentioned, and perhaps never will be. But it must be assumed that
after the $2 billion secret loan, Dhlakama has demanded and will receive a
substantial amount of money.
Frelimo has been deeply
divided on the negotiations, but in the past month it appears the Nyusi is now
being allowed to assert control. He accepted the cease fire, and then replaced
the Guebuza-appointed head of the security services, SISE, by someone linked to
Chissano. The presence of both Guebuza and Chissano at the announcement of the
resumed talks means the party now has an agreed position. Chissano is said to
have become the senior person in the party and may have played a role in
negotiations with Guebuza. It would seem likely that in exchange for stepping
back and not disrupting, Guebuza has been promised protection over the $2
billion secret debt.
It seems likely that in both
Frelimo and Renamo, there is a recognition that the war and secret debt are
having a more serious impact on foreign investment and development of the gas
than had been expected. The elite needs both issues to be resolved if they are
to profit from the large amount of money expected to flow into the country. Settling the war is the first
essential step. jh
Sources: News
reports & clippings, 5 February 2017
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