Total accepts government cannot protect it

By Joseph Hanlon

UIR special forces are the best trained and paid and have been assigned to protect Afungi. But Total's staff evacuation shows the gas company no longer trusts government forces to protect the project. Insurgents have been marching north for a week. Fixed UIR units can repel attacks, but they are not mobile and could not stop the movement of the insurgents. They seem to be waiting for the guerrillas to knock on their door - and thus go right to gates of Afungi.Insurgents have been tightening the noose for weeks, recently closing the only open road to Palma - the terrible dirt road from Mueda that shippers had to use. And insurgents have been increasing pressure from the south. Mozambique's defence forces proudly win battles, but lose ground. The noose is tightening.

Total's standard response to the press is that it is accompanying the situation closely and maintains permanent contact with the government. So when Total decides to evacuate, it clearly means it has concluded that the government cannot protect it. And the evacuations of most staff and the ban on coastal shipping must slow down the project.

This raises broader questions. ExxonMobil was planning to build its gas liquification plants (LNG trains) on Afungi, and has repeatedly delayed its final investment decision. Insecurity must be raising questions for Total. They can build a big wall on the land side, but as the map shows, there is a large open area facing the sea. And the ban on cargo shipping suggests the Mozambican navy cannot protect that side either.

Will Total try to force the government to accept a major presence of the French army and navy? Or might it give up? Could it decide that the Anadarko/Occidental gas assets it bought elsewhere in Africa are a better bet? jh

Fonte: Mozambique New reports & clippings, 03.01.2021